What Is the MVRV Ratio in Bitcoin? Market Value to Realized Value

MVRV, short for Market Value to Realized Value, was introduced by analysts Murad Mahmudov and David Puell in 2018. It pairs two numbers that answer different questions: what the market thinks bitcoin is worth now, and what holders actually paid on-chain for the coins they hold.

What is the MVRV ratio?

The MVRV ratio is market cap divided by realized cap. Market cap values every coin at the current spot price. Realized cap values every coin at the price on the day it last moved on-chain, so it approximates the aggregate cost basis of the whole supply. Dividing one by the other gives a single dimensionless number that shows how stretched, or compressed, spot price is relative to that cost basis. When the two are equal, MVRV is 1.

How is MVRV calculated?

The formula is straightforward once you have both inputs. Market cap is circulating supply times spot price. Realized cap is the sum of every unspent output valued at its creation-day price. MVRV is the first divided by the second. The work is in building realized cap, which needs every UTXO, its timestamp, and a historical price series. An indexed provider that already holds those can return MVRV and both of its inputs together through a realized price API, rather than making you stitch a price feed to a chain replay.

Ranges are descriptive of past behavior, not thresholds to trade on. Past patterns do not predict future prices.

What is the MVRV Z-score?

The MVRV Z-score is a standardized version of the ratio. It takes the gap between market cap and realized cap and divides it by the standard deviation of market cap, which puts the metric on a scale that makes extremes easier to compare across cycles. The plain MVRV ratio and the Z-score describe the same relationship; the Z-score just dampens the outsized readings from bitcoin's early, thin-liquidity years so different cycles sit on a comparable axis.

What is a good MVRV ratio?

There is no universally good value, because MVRV is a description of state, not a grade. A reading below 1 tells you the average coin is underwater on-chain; a very high reading tells you the average coin is deep in unrealized profit. Neither is inherently good or bad, and neither predicts the next move. Analysts read MVRV alongside supply distribution, exchange flows and other indicators rather than in isolation, precisely because any single ratio is easy to misread on its own.

What are the limitations of MVRV?

MVRV has real blind spots. It treats every on-chain movement as if it reset a coin's cost basis, but many movements (consolidations, change outputs, internal custody transfers) are not economic buys, which distorts realized cap. It cannot see off-chain positions, leverage, or lost coins that inflate the denominator. And its historically meaningful levels have drifted as the market matured, so a threshold from an early cycle may not carry the same meaning now. Use it as one lens, not a verdict.

Is MVRV a buy or sell signal?

No. MVRV is an informational on-chain metric that compares spot price to the aggregate cost basis of the supply. It describes where the network sits relative to what it paid; it does not forecast price and is not a trading signal or investment advice. If you want the data behind it, you can compute MVRV and its inputs from the indexed chain and trace any figure back to the underlying coins, so the number is auditable rather than a black box. Bitcoin data here is informational only.